Sunday, April 15, 2012

BrassTacks Security analysis

Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid [Official]

BrassTacks Security analysis:

Pakistani parliament finally sets the terms and conditions for the US supplies to go through Pakistan. This was a symbolic “avalanche” strike for the Af-Pak and US strategy in Afghanistan. Parliament bans all military supplies and demanded an end to the drones and CIA operations and bases in Pakistan. Despite having Zardari in power, the spineless parliament crumbled under the pressure from the patriots in the streets and in the army. This is the ultimate nightmare for the US.

Now the Americans are thunderstruck and do not know how to advance their military strategy in Af-Pak regions. US’s central strategy and survival revolves around drone strikes and on their supplies from Pakistan. Now if these two are blocked, then US is as good as dead in Afghanistan. The painful reality is now dawning on the Obama administration and they are desperately trying to show some defiance.

Pakistan army now has the parliament’s approval to block the weapons, armored cars and ammunition from the 5000 NATO containers stuck in Pakistan. US now fears the worst nightmare as mood becomes angry and defiant in Pakistan over NATO supplies. The parliament resolution is the first major sign that game has turned against the US in Pakistan, despite having Zardari as a crony in Islamabad. There are certain limits, even Zardari cannot cross. US is now in total panic and knows that it cannot fight Pakistan. Zardari is now being called to US on another “private visit”.

To gain political mileage and to become the political martyrs, the ruling clan launch a sinister drive to dismember Pakistan on ethnic lines by launching the drive to create more provinces in the already polarized environment where Hazara, Mohajir, Tribals, Baluchistan and Gilgit Baltistan regions are also simmering with separatists movements demanding more division of the country on ethnic lines. This is most dangerous and provocative reactionary politics by Zardari gang.

In these most explosive times when the entire state, government and economy have gone to dogs, new elections would mean suicide for the country. But the opportunists are pushing for the next elections which would surely lead to a civil war in the presence of such anarchy and chaos in the country.

Pakistan is now on the brink of a civil war – from Karachi to Quetta to Gilgit Baltistan but the government, judiciary and the leadership fail to rise to respond to the challenge. These are most critical times when a controlled demolition of the state, government and social fabric is being torn apart in violent convulsions orchestrated by the enemies from within the state and without.

The crisis is still manageable, but for that the government in Islamabad must be removed either judicially else, would be done through street anarchy violently. If this critical and necessary surgery is not done NOW, the urban violence on streets would force the army to come out and impose curfews into every city of the country. We cannot overemphasize the dangerous situation Pakistan is in today. The urban decentralized 4th generation war is now fully deployed in all regions of the country as the violence patterns describes graphically.

On Siachen tragedy, Americans instantly jumped in to exploit the moment of tragedy in Siachen to offer their help to “mediate” between Pakistan and India. Pakistan army was already weary of Indian and US intentions and the latest media campaign to force Pakistan to withdraw from the Glacier and the aggressive and intrusive US involvement in the dispute has alarmed the GHQ. While all European and Chinese rescue teams have been sent to the avalanche site, the US team has been held back as a visible mark of defiance and protest by Pak army.

But Indians, on the other hand, are making aggressive progress into Pakistan’s society, politics and economy, thanks to strongly pro-Indian stance by both Zardari and Nawaz Shareef, literally tilting the balance totally in India’s favor. PPP regime is overhauling their team to please the Indians as some members within the government are also reluctant to go so fast with the arch enemies, literally compromising the entire national interest. With both Nawaz and Zardari hands in glove with the Indians, there is nothing stopping the Indians now in non-military affairs. Indians are scrambling to penetrate Pakistan’s economy, media and industry and are cashing in rapidly.