Sunday, October 14, 2012

BrassTacks weekly National Security review and Defense analysis:

Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid [Official] shared a link.
15 October 2012
BrassTacks weekly National Security review and Defense analysis:

As the 4thGW continue to ravage Pakistan, the Supreme Court finally and belatedly realized that the province of Baluchistan has already collapsed and the entire province has
 been running without a government or law. Baluchistan Liberation army continues to spill blood of Pakistanis while the elements within the government remain on looting and corruption frenzy. It is actually bizarre.

On another axis, the province of NWFP is also collapsing equally rapidly. The CIA and RAW backed Tehreek e Taliban e Pakistan (TTP) continue to wage their wars but the government remains partners in crime through complicity, corruption and collaboration. If there was no army in Baluchistan or NWFP, the provinces would already have been overrun by the insurgents. It is actually that critical now. But still, the cost being given in blood is staggering. From CIA drones to TTP insurgents – the axis of violence which is directed against the state and the people is bloody and widespread.

But the dreaded anarchist TTP miscalculated one assassination attempt on a little 14 year old schools girl who was known to be a national celebrity. The assassination bid has outraged the entire nation, galvanizing a response never seen before against the CIA backed insurgents. Even the pro-US political parties are now forced to condemn the TTP and are asking the army to eliminate the curse.

Last week, we gave the following assessment of the chaos and anarchy and the imposed 4thGW against Pakistan. The scenario continues to get bleaker every week while the army waits and ponders over the collapse in inexplicable silence.

We wrote last week:

“Surrounded by enemies and under attack from US/Indian backed 4thGW, AfPak and Cold start doctrines, Pakistan military now seeks alliances in Russia and SCO region. Zardari regime remains committed towards US and NATO, seeking more aid, cooperation, support and protection and acting as agents of US policy in Islamabad. The power centers of GHQ and Presidency are driving their own strategies, often at war with each other as well.
Baluchistan is another theatre where Pakistan army is now seriously being forced to get involved after a massive media and psy-ops was launched by the CIA/Indian backed insurgents to trigger insurgency and constitutional chaos by the separatists’ leaders.
But too many strategic opportunities are being lost in Islamabad due to chaos, anarchy and the judicial collision between state institutions and political parties. The country is in a state of war but the government, political parties and the judiciary remain in denial. Media remains totally out of control and the social and urban chaos is magnified through corruption, lawlessness and nepotism. Elections would throw the country in a spiral of violence but the political scavengers are pushing for the ultimate chaos.

From economic anarchy to the lawlessness, there is no government now in Islamabad”

The military is now seriously pondering over its next moves. There is a general consensus in the army that the country is now almost lost under the present regime and unless a massive and radical solution is not deployed, the country would indeed become another “Somalia” or “Iraq”. The terrorism by TTP and treason by the regime and the attacks by the CIA are the key concerns. the But the question which the military is still not able to resolve is on the strategy to remove this regime and to bring in the alternates.

The language used by the military after the commanders conference is indicative of the concern and the limits to which the army is willing to go. The desire is there to remove the regime but the debate is on the timings. The delay in deciding this critical issue is proving to be fatal for the country.

US is trying to ride the emotional wave against TTP in Pakistan to drag the country against Afghan Taliban and Haqqani. The military has been resisting the US pressure to enter North Waziristan to operate against Afghan resistance. Now US see an opportunity here to push Pakistan in. It would be a challenge for the army to balance its image within the country and to sustain the US pressure. US is already defeated in Afghanistan. There is nothing they can do if Pakistan army decides to play tough. This is the moment for the Pak army to hold its ground after 11 years of bullying by the US.

While the army desperately tries to defend the country against host of threats and wars, the political leadership and the ruling elite remains sinisterly busy in plotting their victory in the next elections and in minting money through staggering corruption. The entire state structure has collapsed. From SC to government to media, scandals are hitting the roof.

These are the defining moments in Pakistan’s history. All institutions except army have collapsed compromised or have failed to rise to the challenge. Army is still standing but is dazed and confused, handling only the military axis of the threat while the political, diplomatic, media, economic and judicial axis collapse rapidly into an all our anarchy. The indecision at the topmost levels of the army is creating dangerous levels of despondency and anger in the lower ranks and officer corps. While on one hand the military leadership tries to balance its international image by supporting the “democracy”, on the other hand it has to calculate the rate of collapse of the state within and rising anger within the institution. It is a most delicate and dangerous calculus where margin of error is zero for the army leadership. If our calculations are right, army won’t wait much longer now. Else, it would be game over for the army also.

Khair inshAllah.