Sunday, December 30, 2012

BrassTacks Threat Analysis for Q1 2013

BrassTacks Threat Analysis for Q1 2013

The 4th Generation war against Pakistan has now been upgraded to new anarchic levels – the 5th Generation war! When objectives of the 4th GW are not achieved, then the next strategy is deployed – to keep the target country in a perpetual state of chaos and anarchy. Under the 4GW, the anarchy should have led to the Af-Pak and Cold start invasions to dismember the country like Iraq or Yugoslavia. But since, Pakistan army still remains a strong deterrence, Af-pak and Cold start is being delayed and more focus would be on keeping the country on anarchic boiling levels till the time the US and the Indians are ready for the high intensity conventional or non-conventional conflict.

To the advantage of Pakistan and to the surprise of the US and India, US economy is crashing at home and the ISAF is losing their war in Afghanistan. Their prime assets TTP and BLA have taken severe hits in Pakistan at the hands of a determined Pakistan army. NATO supplies still remain highly vulnerable in Pakistan and nuclear weapons still remain intact, protected and secured by Pakistan’s armed forces. The objectives and aims of the 4thGW had to scaled back under these setbacks and now more focus would be on creating internal anarchy to further “soften” the Pakistani state and armed forces – the 5th GW.

The rule of these new generation warfare are:

“Whoever is first to recognize, understand, and implement a generational change can gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, a nation that is slow to adapt to generational change opens itself to catastrophic defeat”

As the entire focus of the regime and the judiciary is on holding elections, the insurgents, terrorists and the militants are on a rampage all across the country in a devastating anarchic urban war. The state has almost collapsed in Sindh, Baluchistan and NWFP with Punjab suffering from social and economic anarchy due to power and energy crisis. It is a total war on all axis with no response strategy from any quarter.

There is no confusion now about the direction of events under the deployed 4th and 5thGW. The only crisis is that the army Chief remains frozen in indecision and fear of the unknown while the fire burns all axis of the state, economy and national unity. The CJ and Zardari are hopeless cases to start with. Media would remain hostile and continues to degenerate every day. The new political aspirants remain blissfully naive of the collapse and have their own ambitions to achieve irrespective of the cost nation will have to bear. As such, army remains the only institution to pull the country out of the collapse but remains undecided and confused on the strategy to adopt. Government is now planning for the elections but may have to adjust to the ground realities under threat from Dr. Tahir ul Qadri’s long March on January 14th. Army watches the developments in horror but waits……

The fact of the matter is that the anarchy has already gone out of control of the army, government and the judiciary. The insurgents, enemies and the hostile players have the initiative and the advantage of surprise. The state waits, takes hits and falls back more and more into its shell conceding more and more space to the enemies on all axis. As such, defeat of the state of Pakistan is certain but what is more painful is that the leadership sees it coming and still remains unable and too fearful to respond despite having the capability to respond and reclaim the lost ground. This is the real tragedy.

Holding the elections is the key element in unleashing the full fury of the 5th generation war. The leadership remains complete and total idiots or collaborators. As such, sans a miracle, the fate of this nation is sealed.

Khair inshAllah