Monday, February 11, 2013

BrassTacks Threat Analysis

Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid [Official]

February 11, 2013

BrassTacks Threat Analysis :

Indians now plan a 1971 East Pakistan styled invasion on Pakistan to grab the territory of Kashmir which is under Pakistan’s control!! This would be the “Cold Start” Indians plan to launch into Pakistan when the country reaches a critical threshold of anarchy, chaos and urban wars – just as it happened in 1971. This is no more a hypothetical scenario but a declared intent of Indian planners, policy makers and army. The signals, signs and actions are too damning.


1. Just a few weeks ago Indian Police asked people to prepare for a nuclear war. It is obvious that they meant an “attack” from Pakistan is high probability. Indians know that Pakistan would only be forced to use nuclear weapons if the Pakistani controlled Kashmir is lost under an Indian invasion.

2. As the anarchy began to spread in Islamabad during the Long march of Dr. Tahir ul Qadri and the entire Pakistan government was on the verge of collapse, Indians started hostile provocations on the Line of Control in Kashmir with Indian army Chief issuing an unprecedented warning to Pakistan, threatening to chose a war theatre of their own choice. The Indian game plan was expose here also. Anarchy within Pakistan would invite a war on the Eastern front, just as it did in 1971.

3. Finally, an Indian Kashmiri leader belonging to pro-India party spills the beans. Indians are planning a military invasion on Azaad Kashmir to grab the territory by force in a military-political operation similar to the one orchestrated in 1971 in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.

US did manage to diffuse the tension this time but in future, Indians won’t miss the opportunity. Pakistan is a too lucrative target for Indians to come under US pressure.

In East Pakistan, in 1971, the former Pakistani province led by Indian backed separatists announced unilateral declaration of Independence from Pakistan after winning the 1970 elections. Five years before the elections, in 1966, Indians had created an insurgent group Mukti Bahini in East Pakistan which was launched to create complete and total anarchy during and after the elections. Mukti Bahini declared rebellion against the state of Pakistan, created massive internal anarchy, drew Pakistan army into urban war for 9 months, exhausting the resources of the besieged army and then in November 1971, Indian army crossed over the international borders to launch a massive 4 prong attack on East Pakistan leading to a short but bloody war which created the state of Bangladesh. The hallmarks of the East Pakistan crisis were:

1. A weak and corrupt government in Islamabad creating total governance collapse in Islamabad.

2. Urban insurgency and terrorist groups created by Indian army and RAW in East Pakistan.

3. Bogging down of Pakistan army in urban war within its own borders, drawing it away from border defenses into internal security duties.

4. Invasion by Indian army in a sudden attack when the internal anarchy, chaos and insurgencies reached the peak levels, leading to capitulation of Pakistan government in the East.

Except for the last phase of an Indian invasion mentioned above, all the other ingredients of the East Pakistan war are now in place. A collapsed regime is in place in Islamabad turning Pakistan into an almost a failed state. Multiple insurgencies, terrorist gangs and urban militant gangs are operating all over the country dragging the army into a bloody urban war within the national borders. Now elections are around the corner which is sure to be the bloodiest, anarchic and chaotic in Pakistan’s history, literally the last nail in the coffin of an organized state.

The proposed Indian invasion plan is now expected to be launched after the elections when the state would be officially headless, chaotic and burning itself down under the weight of democracy. Kashmir is the Line of Control, NOT an international border; hence the Indians will escape any international sanctions also for annihilating a “disputed” territory. Over half a million strong Indian army is already present in Kashmir, making it an ideal battleground for the Cold start military launch. If the Indians decide to enter into Kashmir, they will also open multiple diversionary attacks along the entire international border to draw the main force of Pakistan army away from the Kashmir front. With almost 150,000 Pakistani troops bogged down in elections duties, Pakistan will not have any reserves to compensate for the overwhelmingly strong Indian force in the Kashmir theater.

Pakistan now faces a real existential crisis on the East also, along with fighting another existential war on the West. The crisis had magnified exponentially for the Pak army and the state.

On the Western theater, Pakistan is faced with newer and multiple threats from US, TTP, Afghan national army and the Baluchistan liberation army.

US is now starting a phased withdrawal from Afghanistan. They are taking out first batches of redundant military hardware on a journey to Karachi port to be taken out of the country. US needs Pakistan for this withdrawal and hence had to force the Indians to back off when Indians attempted to exploit the anarchy in Islamabad in mid January. But once this US withdrawal would be complete, US would not need the Pakistani land route to sustain their limited military presence in Afghanistan which can be supplied through Central Asia or through the air.

Pakistan army is trying to develop its own strategy in the wake of US withdrawal and would be building bridges with the Afghan resistance and the ruling coalition of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazarars. But still, Pakistan government does not have an independent, defined or declared long term Afghan strategy and everything is being done ad-hoc on the basis of doctrine of necessity as the leftovers of US game plan in the region. It is the Afghans or the US which are making the policy. Pakistan government is only complying obediently when the greatest Geo-political opportunity is knocking at the door since the Soviet withdrawal in 1988.

Sensing that the US would be withdrawing the bulk of their forces and Afghan Taliban would be exerting themselves more strongly into the Afghan affairs, the CIA/RAW created TTP is now panicking and is trying to find its own exit strategy by offering “peace” talks with Pakistan army. TTP is searching for anti-army allies within the Pakistani society and found the JUI, JI and PML(N) as allies.

TTP made the “peace” offer through the man who was responsible for attack on the army chief and the one who is the most wanted for the Pak army, sending a most provocative message to the army. TTP also demands release of their top terrorists in the custody of the army as pre-condition for talks and in the same breath threatens Pakistan of more attacks unless their demands are not met. A totally blackmailing attempt by keeping the state hostage and trying to exploit the anti-army sentiments in the political parties. The talks are a non-starter with army though the government and the political parties would try to humiliate the army by initiating the talks with the terrorists. The Zardari regime has changed the Governor of NWFP at this stage and the serious suspicion is that he is being brought in to complete the final phase of the US / CIA demolition job in Pakistan in the most sensitive war torn province of Pakistan. Giving an exit strategy to TTP at this stage would be a national security suicide.

CIA is also deploying their prime asset in Pakistan – JUI chief Fazlur rehman to act as go between the CIA and Afghan Taliban to seek favorable terms for the US. This is the same JUI chief who has been asked to become the guarantors for peace talks by the CIA mercenary army TTP fighting against the Pakistani state. The game has entered the last stages now and every snake is coming out of his pit to play its role in the deadly end game.

In these times of state failure, the government and the political parties are hell bent upon holding the elections while the pressure groups are crying foul, going to the Supreme Court to set the playing field level. No one is worried about the war or the consequences of holding the elections in these times of state failure. It is a total circus at judicial, political and media levels. Even the government knows that elections can only be held under the protection of the army due to bloody violence all over the country but no one is willing to talk about the consequences. Indians are waiting for such a scenario.

One does not have to go far to see the reasons for the catastrophic failure of law and order in Karachi and in rest of the country. The city cops are mostly all criminals, even facing cases of murders, arson, robberies and gang crimes but still serving on critical posts!! On the average 15 people are being killed in Karachi in crimes and gang wars led by political parties whose appointed cops are running the business for them.

The country is collapsing on all axis, Baluchistan, Karachi and NWFP are already war zones with economy of the country hitting the rock bottom with no revenue generation sources for the government to this extent that now even paying of salaries or managing fuel for the government may also become a challenge. With every passing day, Pakistan army is making it almost impossible for itself to recover the state by staying neutral in this imposed 4th generation war. Responding to the military axis is NOT enough in a war whose major axis are political, judicial, media and economic. As such, defeat is certain now and the Indians are aggressively preparing to move in to exploit the strategic void in Pakistan. Elections would be the cutoff date after which Pakistan army will start to physically lose ground to the internal and external invasions. The signs are too uncomfortable to ignore now. We have entered the last stages now.

It is the call of the army now. All other organs of the state have been compromised.

Khair inshAllah.



 

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