Tuesday, October 7, 2014

The threat analysis no one will tell you about

The threat analysis no one will tell you about:

Visit of Indian PM Modi to US and a joint declaration of US and India against Pakistan, has suddenly increased the threat levels for Pakistan. For the last 14 years, Pakistan is subjected to 3 different types of wars.

1. Af-Pak – The war launched inside Pakistan through drones, JSOC and insurgent groups based inside Pakistan.

2. 4th Generation war – war designed to implode Pakistan from within through political chaos, economic collapse and information war through media.

3. Indian Cold Start – designed by the Indians to coordinate with Af-Pak and 4GW to roll into Pakistan when the state becomes too soft, anarchic and chaotic through the deployed wars from the Western borders.

Suddenly, all the 3 axis of the wars have become very alive, as the chaos and the confusion in Islamabad continue to cripple the state from within.

US drone strikes, the resurgent terrorism in both frontier and Baluchistan, urban anarchy in Karachi, clashes between Pakistan and India along the line of Control in Kashmir and the political meltdown in Islamabad, fully backed by a hostile media war by the Geo group.

US have just signed a security pact with the new Afghan President, basically meaning that US is NOT leaving Afghanistan for at least 10 years! The government in Islamabad is so naïve that it is actually celebrating this disastrous development.

But the dangerous part is that the political leadership remains criminally naïve of the threats and remains in NO urgency to resolve the political chaos in the country. All political parties are partying as if they have all the time in the world at their disposal while the wars continue to pick up momentum against the state and the country. Zardari and the PPP fear that the chaos might roll up the democracy and have decided to fully support the NS against Imran Khan. But none of the political parties are serious about the national security crisis.

Pakistan needs a strong political government immediately. The present setup has become dysfunctional practically. The government of NS is now too under stress, confused, corrupt, disoriented and hated to be able to deliver in these dangerous times. For how long this regime stays in power would depend upon when army would decide to pull the plug. Else, the regime would remain on respirator, bringing the country down with it. Political chaos will continue for the foreseeable future. The opposition may not be able to bring down the government, but it can surely incapacitate it, which it has already done to a great extent.

For the enemies of Pakistan, this is the right moment to increase the pressure, which they have done radically since the last 2 weeks. But the Pakistani national leaders of all sorts remain too dumb to notice this.

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